The Rise of Linux
📝️ Video Transcript: This is the transcript for a video on my youtube channel. It should still be just as readable as an article, but you can also find the video here.
Covering the rise in market share of Linux may seem simple, but it's gets more complicated as you break it down. Since Android is based on the Linux kernel, and global operating system market share has Android at 43%, the number one place, wouldn't that mean Linux already won and we can end the discussion here? Well, when people say Linux, they usually mean common distributions like Ubuntu, Fedora, Arch and so on, so we'll stick first to the desktop market share rather than mobile, then later dive into Server market share.
But before discussing number of Linux users, it's worth mentioning something that could skew these statistics, that is the privacy measures many Linux users take to ensure their personal data is not collected, this very data that SEO and analytics companies use to provide these reports. Ad blockers such as U-block origin will block or filter out tracking scripts that websites use to gather data about users operating systems and other details. Other than custom scripts, this data can be found in your user agent, something that is included in the header of every HTTP Get request. Which, if you're curious, can be found by typing in window.navigator.userAgent in the dev tools, and that is your personal identifier which much of this data is collected from.
Liberal Estimate
Back to the market share, Stat Counter which is the most liberal estimate, shows Linux desktop worldwide reached just under 4% this year up from 3% in 2023. The increase is more pronounced in the United States at 3.7% up from 2% last year, nearly doubling. Those in India use Linux the most, at 14%, which brings the global average up significantly.
India
This is due to several reasons, one, since India is a developing country, not everyone can afford a computer with a i9 processor and 30 gigs of ram. Sometimes all they have is an old laptop where installing a Linux distro brings it back to life. Schools and governments adopt Linux to cut costs, as Windows can be expensive due to their licenses, not to mention increased risk of malware and cyber security threats. As a response, the Indian Defense Research and Development Organization forked their own distribution of Ubuntu called Maya OS. So Linux in India is less expensive, more secure, and widely adopted. This also could be due to many in India choosing fields like engineering, including computer science.
Use Friendly
Another reason for the adoption of Linux worldwide is it's user friendliness compared to 20 year ago. In the late 90s and early 2000s, installing Linux meant purchasing a floppy drive, partitioning hard drive space, and manually configuring and installing X Windows programs from the terminal. Nowadays its much more approachable with a streamlined installation process. In fact, during my last few installs of Fedora, I don't remember even needing to open the terminal once.
Microsoft
Besides India driving the global market share and Linux being more approachable and user friendly nowadays, the third possible reason is Microsoft just not caring about Windows as much as the 90s and 2000s. Currently, Windows represents only 12% of total revenue, far surpassed by Azure cloud products and services as well as Office subscriptions.
Conservative Estimate
Anyways, aside from the 4% figure from Stat Counter, we have a more conservative estimate from Steam hovering just below 2%. Now of course these are Steam users where gaming isn't as supported on Linux, as opposed to Windows. Either way, this number doubled since 2020 where where market share was reported at just 0.9%. So whether you are looking at Stat Counter, or Steam's report, Linux desktop usage has been increasing considerably over the past several years.
Additional
W3 Techs report shows Unix (which includes Linux) had an increase of operating system for websites from 65% to 85% from 2013 to 2024 while Windows server declined from 35% to 16%.
5 Reasons Why Desktop Linux Is Finally Growing In Popularity: zdnet article
India
Good News! Indian State Aims to Save Over $400 Million by Choosing Linux Why is India’s Defence Ministry ditching Microsoft Windows for Ubuntu-based Maya OS?
User Friendliness of Linux in 2004
very little has been done to increase its user-friendliness and extend its reach outside highly technical and knowledgeable individuals and those in academic computing environments. Without a reasonable level of user-friendliness, Linux cannot attract a critical mass of users required for its success.
PG 19 of This Research Paper https://www.researchgate.net/publication/3248102_Economics_of_Linux_Adoption_in_Developing_Countries